Schedule luck
Luck index
Actual wins minus expected wins — the gap between the scores a manager posted and the wins they banked.
What is an expected win?
Each week a team earns partial credit equal to the share of the league it outscored. Outscore eight of the other eleven teams and that week is worth 0.73 expected wins— whether the head-to-head went your way or not. Summed over a career, expected wins measure how often a manager's scoring should have won.
Reading the luck delta
Luck is actual wins minus expected wins. A positive number means a team banked more wins than its scores earned — a soft schedule, close games breaking its way. Negative means the opposite: big scores wasted on losing weeks. Zero is a perfectly fair schedule.
Distribution
Earned vs banked
Every manager plotted by expected wins (what their scores deserved) against actual wins. Above the break-even line is lucky; below is robbed.
Swing
Luck delta
Actual wins minus expected wins, every manager — sorted from luckiest to most robbed.
verbbb0.0
Golden Branch in Pants 0.0
Mike Vick’s Puppies🐶−0.2
Glock Purdy 🔫−0.9
Nick top Bobby bottom −2.8
First Down Syndrome −3.2
Njigbas with Attitude −3.6
The McCafrican Americans−4.4
USPS Allstars ⭐️📦✅−4.5
Cursed team−8.7
Kirko Chainz Gang−14.3
Pukakke−15.2
The ledger
Lucky to robbed
12 managers · all-time, games played
Luckiest
+0.0
verbbb
Manager
Actual W
Exp W
Swing
Δ Luck
